Inoue v. Picasso: Which Way Are the Odds Turning?

On Saturday, December 27, 2025, boxing fans will witness a thrilling battle in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The Mohammed Abdo Arena will host a matchup between two undefeated fighters - Naoya Inoue and Alan David Picasso. Both men will enter the ring with the undisputed super-bantamweight titles on the line. This fight promises to be a defining moment in the division. Inoue (undefeated) defends, while Picasso (undefeated as well) challenges for the belts.

The question remains: who do the odds favour? With both fighters undefeated, there are plenty of ways this fight could play out, but the betting markets are already making their predictions.

Naoya Inoue, known as the "Monster," enters this fight with a perfect record of 31 wins and 0 losses, with an impressive knockout ratio. He has made a name for himself as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. His combination of speed, power, and precision has made him a feared competitor in the ring. Inoue has claimed multiple titles in the super-bantamweight and bantamweight divisions, and his track record speaks for itself.

Inoue's biggest strength is his knockout power. He is known for finishing fights early, often dominating from the first bell. His approach is aggressive, and he is not afraid to pressure his opponents. With each knockout victory, Inoue has solidified his place as a top-tier boxer, and he will undoubtedly be the favourite going into this matchup. If the fight follows the pattern of his previous bouts, Inoue could make quick work of Picasso.

Alan David Picasso, on the other hand, brings a perfect record of his own: 32 wins, 0 losses, and 1 draw, with 17 KOs. While Picasso’s record may seem just as impressive as Inoue's, this will be his first true step-up in competition, and many view him as the underdog in this fight.

Picasso’s style is based more on defensive skills and counter-punching. He is a patient fighter who does not rush in but rather waits for his opportunity to strike. His challenge will be keeping up with Inoue’s aggressive style while avoiding getting caught by the heavy hands of the champion. Despite his undefeated record, Picasso has yet to face a fighter with the raw power and speed of Inoue, which is why many predict he will struggle in this bout.

Predictions

Early betting markets place Inoue’s chances of victory at around 94%, making him the clear favourite heading into this fight. With his proven knockout power and flawless record, it is no surprise that he is given such strong backing. If you’re looking to place a bet on this matchup, sister sites across the internet are offering competitive odds.

For Alan David Picasso, the odds are much less favourable, with only a 6% chance of winning in the eyes of the bookmakers. While this might seem harsh, Picasso has a lot to prove, and there is always a chance that he could surprise the boxing world. However, most experts and analysts are predicting that Inoue’s combination of power and speed will be too much for Picasso to handle.

The betting markets also heavily favour a KO/TKO victory for Inoue, with predictions suggesting there is a 99% chance that Inoue will win by stoppage. If Picasso is going to have any chance, he will need to survive Inoue’s early onslaught and hope to drag the fight into the later rounds.

The Key to Victory

For Naoya Inoue, the path to victory is straightforward: stay aggressive, land clean punches, and go for the knockout. Inoue thrives when he can dominate his opponents from the beginning, and he will likely try to do the same with Picasso. His knockout ability is his biggest weapon, and he will look to take Picasso out early, rather than let the fight drag on.

For Alan David Picasso, the key to victory lies in defensive skills and counter-punching. Picasso must use his speed and footwork to avoid Inoue’s big punches and try to frustrate him with precise counters. He will need to withstand Inoue’s power and avoid getting into a slugfest. If Picasso can make it to the later rounds, he might be able to capitalise on Inoue’s potential fatigue or mistakes. However, this is easier said than done, especially against a fighter of Inoue's calibre.

Final Thoughts

This fight will undoubtedly be a spectacle, with Naoya Inoue defending his titles against an undefeated challenger in Alan David Picasso. The odds heavily favour Inoue, and most predictions point to a dominant victory for the champion. However, boxing is always full of surprises, and Picasso could shock the world if he could overcome the odds and neutralise Inoue’s power.