Can William Scull Pull Off the Ultimate Upset Against Canelo Alvarez?

Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez is in the headlines once again, and again, it's not for the overwhelmingly positive news he became so accustomed to years ago. With fans' dreams of seeing the box office powerhouse clash with the monster David Benavidez seemingly permanently over, Alvarez has penned a deal to fight yet another perceived low-level opponent in the form of William Scull.

The two will meet in Saudi Arabia on May 3rd, and both fans and websites offering bets on sports give the unheralded challenger next to no chance. The latest odds for one looking to bet on sports at Bovada currently make Canelo a whopping 1/16 favorite for the victory, with Scull priced as a mighty 14/1 underdog. So, that begs the question, can the rank outsider get the job done?

Canelo’s Kryptonite?

Canelo Alvarez. The name alone has sent chills down the spines of countless opponents. One only needs to look at how the previously undefeated former middleweight champion Billy-Joe Saunders shrank when standing across the ring from him to know the fear that the Mexican instills in those opposite him. He’s got the resume, the power, the chin, and the experience.

But no fighter is invincible. If you dig into the numbers and look at the footage, a specific trend pops up. The sharp, technical guys? The ones who move like chess pieces in the ring? They’ve given Canelo fits.

Go back to 2013, when Floyd Mayweather Jr. schooled Canelo over 12 rounds. He made it look easy, using his movement, timing, and defense to neutralize the Mexican wrecking ball, even at the ripe old age of 36. Fast forward a year to another Cuban technician like the one he is about to face, Erislandy Lara. He danced around the ring, peppered Canelo with counters from the outside, and in the eyes of many, was robbed as he slipped to a contentious split-decision defeat.

And then there’s Dmitry Bivol. In 2022, the Russian champion used a near-perfect strategy to frustrate Canelo, never letting him get comfortable. Jabs, movement, and defense turned Bivol’s underdog status into a dominant unanimous decision victory. There’s a clear pattern here, and Scull’s slick Cuban style might just fit into it. But then again, there’s a big difference between mythical pre-match analysis and fight night itself.

Is Canelo Still Razor-Sharp?

For all his accolades, some critics whisper that Canelo’s last few opponents haven’t exactly been A-list threats. Since his slip-up against Bivol, the Mexican superstar has gone on a victory tour of sorts, taking on Edgar Berlanga, Jaime Munguia, and John Ryder. Sure, such fighters are certainly no slouches, but none of them had much business being in the ring with the undisputed super middleweight champion, especially when a genuine number-one contender was waiting in the wings.

That, of course, was David Benavidez. The Monster did everything he could to clamor for a mouthwatering clash opposite Canelo. He defeated names such as Caleb Plant and Demetrius Andrade to rise to interim champion status, surely putting him in pole position for a title shot, right? Wrong.

Canelo wanted no business getting in the ring with the Mexican-American, whether he deserved a shot or not. He continued to fight lower-level opposition and famously demanded $200m to make the fantasy clash a reality. Benavidez eventually gave up, moving up to light heavyweight, where he is now the world champion and perhaps on a collision course with Canelo's former conqueror Bivol.

These most recent wins have padded Canelo’s stellar record, no doubt, and perhaps even tarnished his legacy somewhat. But did they challenge him enough to keep him sharp? That’s the million-dollar question, and if the answer is no, then he could be in for a nightmare against an unproven but slippery operator like Scull.

What Does Scull Have to Do to Win?

To pull off the upset, William Scull has to fight the kind of fight they turn into documentaries years down the line. Flawless footwork to stay off the ropes. Sharp combinations to score points and frustrate Canelo. Perfect distance management to avoid those body shots that make you rethink your career choices. Scull also needs to stay mentally focused for all 12 rounds because any lapse against Canelo could lead to a highlight-reel knockout.

And then, there’s the crowd. No matter where this fight happens, odds are the crowd will be overwhelmingly in Canelo’s corner. Scull will need more than skill; he’ll need poise to handle the moment.

Can Scull Shock the World?

Is it impossible? Nothing in sports is. Scull’s style presents challenges that have historically bugged Canelo, but the gap in experience could prove insurmountable. Canelo knows how to deal with slick movers better than he did earlier in his career. His ring IQ, power, and ability to adjust make him a nightmare for any opponent, especially one like Scull, who’s yet to prove himself under the bright lights.

But boxing has a way of flipping the script, and May 3rd could give us another chapter in the squared circle's book of unpredictable upsets. Scull might just surprise everyone and, in doing so, etch his name in the history books. The underdog story sells itself. But will it be a fairy tale or a harsh reality?