Joshua vs. Dubois: Betting Insights for the Big Fight

Come September 21st, 2024, Wembley Stadium will witness a heavyweight clash that's stirring the boxing world: Anthony Joshua versus Daniel Dubois. Anthony Joshua steps into the ring as the heavy favorite. Bookmakers have pegged him at -500 to win outright, a stark contrast to Dubois' +350 underdog status. This suggests that Joshua has a 79% implied probability of winning, leaving Dubois with a 21% chance to pull off the upset.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by @anthonyjoshua

Interestingly, these odds have shifted slightly from when they first opened. Joshua began as a -450 favorite, with Dubois opening at +330. The slight tightening of Dubois’ odds (down to +350) hints that bettors aren't entirely convinced this fight is a foregone conclusion. There's a growing belief that Dubois, with his ferocious power and youthful tenacity, might just have a shot at shocking the world. In addition to the odds, online sportsbooks have released various promotional offers for betting fans, and they can make the most by using clutchbet bonus bets while betting for this event.

Power vs Experience: A Tale of Two Fighters

Joshua, at 34, brings a wealth of experience, with a record of 28 wins (25 by knockout) and just 3 losses. Dubois, at 26, is the younger fighter, boasting 21 wins, 20 of them by knockout, against only 2 losses. The raw knockout power is undeniable on both sides—Dubois even edges out Joshua slightly with a 95% KO rate to Joshua's 89%. Yet, it’s not just about who can punch harder but who can punch smarter and last longer.

Joshua’s edge comes from his experience, having fought 8 more professional bouts and racking up 162 rounds compared to Dubois' 90. He’s also fought in some of the biggest stages in boxing, including his back-to-back wars with Oleksandr Usyk. Dubois, though talented, is stepping into uncharted territory against a seasoned veteran who’s seen—and beaten—many like him before.

Head-to-Head: What the Stats Say

This isn't just about what the bookies think; the tale of the tape offers insights that might sway even the most cautious bettor. Joshua holds a slight height advantage at 6'6" compared to Dubois' 6'5" and a more significant reach advantage at 82 inches to Dubois' 78 inches. In a sport where every inch counts, this could allow Joshua to control the distance, keeping Dubois at bay with his jab and setting up his power punches.

Both men fight orthodox, which often leads to a more tactical and evenly matched bout, but Joshua’s superior ring IQ could exploit Dubois’ lack of experience in such high-stakes fights. Joshua’s recent form backs this up—he’s won 4 of his last 5, with only Oleksandr Usyk managing to outsmart him. Dubois has also won 4 of his last 5, but that one loss to Usyk stands out as a reminder that he's struggled when faced with elite competition.

Recent Form: Momentum Matters

Joshua’s recent run has been impressive. Since losing to Usyk in 2022, he’s bounced back with four straight wins, three by knockout. His most recent victory over Francis Ngannou in March 2024 saw him dismantle the former UFC heavyweight champion in just two rounds. Joshua was a -280 favourite going into that fight, and he lived up to the billing with a dominant performance.

On the other hand, Dubois also enters this fight on the back of a significant win—his June 2024 knockout of Filip Hrgovic was a statement, coming as a +200 underdog. Yet, just a year earlier, Dubois was floored by Usyk in the 9th round, a loss that highlighted potential vulnerabilities in his game when stepping up to the highest level.

Conclusion

As the clock ticks down to September 21st, boxing fans and bettors are bracing for a career-defining night for both fighters. Joshua is the clear favorite, but Dubois’ raw power and hunger make him a live underdog. Whether you’re backing the experienced champion or the explosive challenger, one thing is clear: this is heavyweight boxing, where odds and predictions can be obliterated with a single, well-timed punch.