Mayweather-Guerrero breakdown and prediction

So many questions, so few answers. As the world awaits the return of boxing’s pound for pound PPV sensation, the biggest questions can only be answered on Saturday night when he steps into the ring with who many are calling a tough, rugged Robert Guerrero. Questions like has jail effected Mayweather? Is he finally going to show his age? Does he still have the legs to aid to his masterful defense? Is Robert Guerrero good enough to dethrone the King? These are the questions on everyone’s mind. These are the questions that are hyping up the fight.



It’s time for me to break down the fight, and give the prediction. Last week I was four for four, the week before I predicted the Canelo-Trout fight pretty accurately by picking Canelo to surprise everyone with his boxing skills. Now I’m not perfect by any means. My losses have been picking against Hopkins(stupid) and picking Donaire(I was close about a 10th round KO, Rigoendeaux just decided to get up.) My predictions aren’t God’s word but I like to say they are pretty darn good. So let’s get to it!


     

Is the prediction so hard here? I don’t think so. I don’t even think a little bit. But, is that the catch in this? Is that fact that Guerrero, who is average in everything that he does in the ring, is the guy that is going to stun the world Buster Douglas style? My answer, no. Not even close. Guerrero’s southpaw stance in this particular fight is going to work to Floyd’s favor. He is in fact, at times, a walking punching bag. He doesn’t use that many feints, his head movement isn’t great, he doesn’t have great power at 147, and he doesn’t really move that well on his feet. The biggest disadvantage Guerrero has to fighting Floyd, is that he doesn’t brawl. His game isn’t inside fighting, it’s boxing. Everyone thinks that Guerrero is this brawler that bangs on the inside and he’s not.



Guerrero uses the jab, uses the lead uppercut, and uses the hook. He doesn’t chase very well and allows the fight to come to him. Guerrero’s good when someone tries to sit in the middle of the ring and exchange with him at Guerrero’s comfortable distance. He’s best when he comes forward and his opponent decides not to back up and counter, but to sit there and exchange with some punches. He’s good at catching people coming in as well. Mayweather doesn’t do any of that, and he won’t Saturday night.


     

Guerrero is going to find himself chasing Floyd all around that ring. Mayweather has to look for the lead uppercut that Guerrero loves to throw. He needs to be ready for the right hook to follow. Both punches can be seen a mile away when you have Mayweather’s eyes. Guerrero will have the better chance at winning the jab battle, but when a lefty faces a righty the jabs hardly matter. Guerrero’s likes to jab a lot, but he doesn’t use it as a punch to score points with. He uses it as a setup punch and doesn’t land it very much. He doesn’t use it to back fighter’s up and get on the inside, which he would need to do with Floyd to have a chance at winning. He uses it to set up his left uppercut and hook. He waits for his opponent to come in to land those punches, which is not going to happen Saturday night. Floyd isn’t going to be coming at Guerrero. He’s going to be sitting there waiting for Guerrero to throw, counter, and then be gone.


     

The key punch for Floyd in this fight is the lead right hand, which he throws better than anyone in the sport of boxing. It’s the best punch against a southpaw. The other significant punch is the lead left hook, which he also happens to be one of the best at. Those two punches are going to land every single time Guerrero tries to come forward. When Guerrero tries to counter after those punches land, Mayweather will be nowhere in sight. I expect this to happen for nearly the entire fight. Guerrero will come forward behind an ineffective jab, and Mayweather will counter easily with the lead right hand, maybe even doubling it up or coming back with the hook. He’ll jab too but not often. Just enough jabs to throw Guerrero off his plan a tad. Eventually a frustrated Guerrero will just coast through rounds getting beat to every punch.  

     


Does Guerrero have a chance? Sure. Everyone has a chance. I mean after all this is boxing. There is a blueprint to beat Mayweather, regardless of what he says. The blueprint is to have a good strong jab to push him back to the ropes, then to flurry to the body and to the head once he is on the ropes, and to do this for twelve rounds straight. By doing this, the judges will favor rounds to his opponent. It’s tiring, and it’s very hard to do. So hard, that in 43 fights no one has ever done it. This style of fighting was Castillo’s style but Castillo lost too many early rounds, and was dropped, to be able to win the first fight. This style was De La Hoya’s game plan but he tired out and lost his ability to follow through with the plan as he got frustrated throughout the fight. And it was Cotto’s style, who faded in the championship rounds of the fight and wasn’t able to continue the success he was having early in the fight. This is the style needed to beat Mayweather. It’s not Guerrero’s style. He doesn’t fight like that.  



Unless by some miraculous turn of events Guerrero has changed his style overnight, or he catches Floyd with a huge left hand, this fight is going to Floyd by Unanimous Decision. I’m guessing 118-110.



Follow Gabriel Gonzalez @GabeJGonzalez on Twitter

 


Undercard:

 

I’m taking Mares by Split Decision in a tough fight against De Leon. I’m picking Love to beat Rosado by Unanimous Decision. And I’m picking Cruz to KO Munoz. My upset pick that I decided not to go with but that I think people should look out for is Rosado beating Love by KO. I’m not picking the fight to go that way but it could happen. 

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