The Canelo, Cotto, Martinez, Fight Triangle Rises

If you never thought that boxing could be compared to Twilight then guess again. Everyone enjoys a good love triangle. While this is usually glorified in movies, books, and television shows across the world, sometimes it can trickle over into other things. Next year the sport of boxing will have its own storyline as Miguel Cotto, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, and Sergio Martinez seek to engulf each other’s attention for a chance to face off in the ring. No matter what way they are mix-matched all three fights are makeable. Even better, there is no wrong way to start.

To start a good story involving three people’s desire to have each other two of the parties must first fight for the same one. Enter Alvarez and Martinez, who in the first part of 2014 are battling for the chance to face Miguel Cotto. Alvarez wants Cotto in March for a PPV extravaganza while Martinez wants to face Cotto in June for a mega PPV fight. (Although some reports say Martinez may be ready to go in April). Cotto can’t choose both. Cotto’s a free agent in the boxing world which means he isn’t bound by Golden Boy, Top Rank, Showtime, or HBO. Because of this Cotto is the easiest fight to make for both Martinez and Canelo. He is also the biggest money making fight out there for both guys which is why he is being so eagerly pursued.

So the ball’s in Cotto’s court. Decisions like this aren’t easy to make. When choosing between two very intriguing opponents that offer different things one must weigh the pros and cons about who brings what to the table. Cotto must make the right decision for him. (Just like that love story when the damsel is trying to choose between the two guys she has fallen in love with.) A fight with Canelo would make Cotto the most money according to early predictions. It’s a better seller than Cotto-Martinez. However a fight against Canelo is a more dangerous fight where he’ll likely be a bigger underdog as opposed to facing an aging, injury prone Sergio Martinez. Martinez is a fight where he would make less money but he has been plagued with injuries over the last few years making the fight very winnable for Cotto but not a guarantee by any means. Cotto’s question is a tough one. Choose more money with a tougher opponent in Canelo, or less money with a better chance of winning in Martinez?

While that’s the biggest decision to make there are other things that factor in. Does Cotto want to fight in March or April or June? Also how much of a factor does Bob Arum play into this? While Cotto remains a free agent, he has been loyal to Arum for the most part. He’s comfortable with him handling his fights. If he wants Arum in on the action in making his next fight then Martinez is the only option since Arum and Golden Boy refuse to work with each other. Cotto must also consider the entire year of 2014. If he were to fight Martinez in June and come out victorious a fight against Canelo could still happen in November. It’s the same if he chooses to fight Canelo first. By beating Canelo he would set up a huge Martinez fight later in the year. From that perspective it may be better to fight Martinez first, the guy that he has a better shot against.

Here’s the other trick to the story. Canelo and Martinez want to fight each other too. So no matter who Cotto chooses to face first, should he lose, it’ll likely be that his loss will set up a Canelo-Martinez fight for late of 2014. Canelo and Martinez both want to fight each other. Both want Cotto first though. Cotto is the lucky one to start this. His decision will put one guy against him and the other waiting for the outcome.

This is how it works. If Cotto chooses to face Canelo in March, the winner of that fight will likely face Martinez in the later part of 2014. The winner will have gotten to face both guys. If Cotto chooses to face Martinez first then the winner of that fight will likely get Canelo in November making it the same situation. One of them, Cotto, Martinez, or Canelo, is going to get to face the other two in 2014. The outcome to the triangle starts with the decision of Miguel Cotto. It doesn’t matter who he picks, and it doesn’t even matter who wins this three man tournament, in the end the fans are winning by getting to see all these matchups, and that’s all that really matters.