Golovkin-Lemieux: Breakdown And Prediction

The middleweight titles are on the line at Madison Square Garden as the undefeated phenomenon Gennady Golovkin (33-0, 30 KO’s) is set to take on the hard-hitting David Lemieux (34-2, 31 KO’s) on HBO PPV tonight. Golovkin has over a 90% KO ratio while Lemieux has over an 85% KO ratio, pretty much setting the tone that his fight is highly unlikely to go the distance.

On the undercard the number one pound for pound fighter in the world on many P4P lists (now that Floyd Mayweather is retired), Roman Gonzalez (43-0, 37 KO’s), takes on Brian Viloria (35-4, 22 KO’s). Also on the televised card Heavyweight contender Luis Ortiz (22-0, 19 KO’s) will square off against Martias Vidondo (20-1-1, 18 KO’s) and opening the card middleweight Tureano Johnson (18-1, 13 KO’s) takes on Eamonn O’ Kane (17-1-1, 5 KO’s).

Every fight is set up to be exciting with each one presenting a good chance of a KO. Now it’s time to breakdown and predict Golovkin-Lemieux, and give my predictions for the rest of the card.

What David Lemieux has to do:

Golovkin is better than Lemieux in most areas. He’s stronger, has better defense, and has a better ring IQ than most give him credit for. The problem that Golovkin has is that if you cannot hurt him he will put his guard down and let you hit him while he searches for the kill. This could work in Lemieux’s favor if he’s smart about it. I’d lay off the power at first. If he could get Golovkin comfortable enough to where he’s coming in recklessly for the kill then maybe he can land some big shots to hurt Golovkin. I very rarely see Lemieux back up in a fight but in this one I think he has too. Golovkin will push the fight forward so if Lemieux can try to counter him with big shots he may catch him. Lemieux is also faster but sometimes he barrages in throwing wide punches. He’s going to have to be contained a little if he has any chance at winning this fight and pick his power punches. If he just rushes forward throwing bombs it’s likely he’ll get countered to much and eventually KO’ed. Lemieux has to be smart because Golovkin does have flaws in his defense. There are times to explode and times not too. Lemieux is going to have to figure it out. On the opposite side of this, knowing the threat Golovkin is and how it takes Golovkin some time to get going, Lemieux may just want to come out swinging for the fences in the hopes of landing a KO punch. Of course, this strategy would involve a very good chance at him getting knocked out as well.

What Gennady Golovkin has to do:

Gennady just has to fight like he fights. Lemieux is the hardest puncher he has ever faced and is one of the hardest punchers in boxing. Other than Golovkin himself there is no harder puncher from the 154-168 division than Lemieux. Golovkin has to be careful not to get to comfortable in pushing the fight. I can see Lemieux landing some big shots early in this fight. The key for Golovkin is to make sure he sees them coming. It’s the punches that he won’t see that could allow Lemieux to drop him. Golovkin needs to establish the jab and make Lemieux feel his power early. This will make Lemieux hesitant. Golovkin’s hook will be a key punch along with his cross. Lemieux likes to rush in with haymakers sometimes and that will be a big chance to counter and land the KO punch. If he can get Lemieux to back up then he needs to get him on the ropes and throw combinations like he usually does. Golovkin sometimes starts slow and that’s because he likes to size up and analyze his opponent. The most dangerous rounds for Golovkin will be the first two while he’s getting his range and tactics down. Lemieux’s doesn’t have much more than one gear so once Golovkin figures him out Lemieux could be in trouble. One thing that Golovkin loves to do is invest in the body. If he can get those in early then Lemieux won’t last long.

Prediction:

Everyone is picking Golovkin by KO and I don’t see my pick being any different. Usually when people expect big knockouts in big fights somehow the fight ends up making it to the cards. I don’t see that being the case here. Someone is getting knocked out. It could be in the first round or later in the fight, which is why everyone loves this fight.

GOLOVKIN KO’s LEMIEUX IN 4

Undercard Predictions:

ROMAN GONZALEZ OVER BRIAN VILORIA BY 8TH ROUND TKO

LUIS ORTIZ OVER MATIAS VIDONDO BY 4TH ROUND KO

TUREANO JOHNSON OVER EAMONN O’KANE BY UNANMIOUS DECISION