Cotto-Canelo Breakdown and Prediction

It’s finally here. Miguel Cotto and Saul Canelo Alvarez will battle for the middleweight championship (kind of) tonight at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, NV. Since Cotto has been stripped of the belt for failing to pay the 300K sanctioning fee and the 800K step aside money to Golovkin, only Canelo can win the belt tonight.

With the nonsense aside tonight’s fights are expected to be some good ones with three of the four televised fights being less than 3-1 favorites. The main event should be a thriller. That’s rare for a PPV fight boxing. So let’s breakdown the main event and give some predictions for the entire televised card:

WHAT MIGUEL COTTO HAS TO DO:

Move, move, and move. For 12 rounds Cotto is going to have to move around that right like his name is Floyd Mayweather. That’s not to say he has to be “boring” as most people would call it. He just has to pick and choose his battles. Freddie Roach called Canelo a robot that follows his opponent everywhere he goes with no footwork. He’s %100 correct. Canelo has a very hard time cutting the ring off. Roach has the game plan to beat Canelo. The big question is…can Cotto execute it?

Under Roach Cotto is back throwing the hard left hook. He’s going to need it against Canelo, especially to the body. Conditioning will be key for Cotto. He has to wear Canelo down and be the guy that has more stamina the last four rounds. Cotto has been known to fade late but under Freddie Roach he claims to be in the best condition he’s ever been in. Cotto hasn’t been in a tough 12 round fight under Roach yet. Rodriguez lasted 3 rounds, Geale lasted 3 rounds, and Martinez was done after the 1st round allowing Cotto to cruise control to a 9th round TKO. It’s likely Canelo will be there in the final four rounds still fighting away. Cotto needs to invest in the body early and move around the ring. Use the combinations to keep Canelo away and move. Investing in the body early will tire Canelo for the later rounds and give him a huge advantage late in the fight.

WHAT CANELO ALVAREZ HAS TO DO”

At some point in this fight Canelo is going to have to get Cotto to brawl with him. Cotto’s game plan will be to move a lot but he’s not Floyd Mayweather or Erislandy Lara. He’s not great on his feet. Cotto will brawl. Canelo needs to get Cotto to brawl more than he wants too.

Canelo’s jab will also be key. He’s faster with it and he’s stronger with it. He needs to establish it early. When he does get to Cotto he needs to get off first and fast. Again, conditioning is a key factor in this fight. Canelo also tends to fade late in his fights. If he can also invest in the body early and keep the pressure on Cotto then he will wear down Cotto. That could lead to a late stoppage or victory. He’s going to have to watch Cotto’s left hook all night long. Years ago Cotto’s little brother staggered Canelo with a left hook in the first round of their fight. That was a different weight, and Canelo was young, but Cotto is a lot stronger than his little brother.

One thing that is concerning is that Canelo has no idea how to cut the ring off and his corner has yet to teach him it. He had three fights against guys that could move, Mayweather/Trout/Lara, and he had trouble with all three. Lucky for him Cotto’s not a huge mover. Eventually he should be able get to him. Once he does he needs to turn it into a fire fight.

PREDICTION:

This fight comes down to who is going to execute that game plan better. It’s truly a 50/50 fight. Will Cotto be able to move the entire fight, not get tired, and frustrate Canelo with his movement and left hook? Or will Cotto fade down the stretch from Canelo’s pressure?

As for Canelo, will he be able to cut the ring off and turn it into a brawl? Is he going to fade down the stretch?

I don’t credit Cotto to have the great movement of guys that have flustered Canelo. Canelo is going to get to Cotto and he’s going to land hard punches that Cotto hasn’t felt in years. Early on Cotto is going to trouble Canelo but it’s my belief that Cotto will be the one to fade down the stretch trying to move too much. I can see the fight turning into a brawl around the 7th or 8th rounds. That is where I believe Canelo will take over the fight.

CANELO DEFEATS COTTO BY 11TH ROUND TKO

UNDERCARD PREDICTIONS:

VARGAS DEFEATS MIURA BY UNANIMOUS DECISION

VELEZ DEFEATS RIOS BY SPLIT DECISION

RIGONDEAUX DEFEATS FRANCISCO BY 4TH ROUND KO